The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution
On behalf of International Chamber of Commerce
This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies.
Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience.
Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
The experts behind the research
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Lloyd BartonHead of Thematic Macro Consulting
]Lloyd Barton is Head of Thematic Macro Consulting at Oxford Economics, leading bespoke client research into long-term trends in the global economy and financial markets. His areas of specialism include macro forecasting & scenario analysis, global trade, banking & capital markets, real estate, and commercial advisory for infrastructure transactions. Lloyd holds degrees in Economics from the Universities of Cambridge and Warwick.
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